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Predestination and election

In short
  • S11.1 Free choice universally affirmed; defended against fate and natures (high)
  • S11.2 Split in the fathers: Augustine’s unconditional election vs. the foreknowledge line (no T1 text verified); Scripture favours election by God’s purpose (Rom 9:11–16; Eph 1:5, 11); no double decree in either (medium)
  • S11.3 Split: Augustine says converting grace is ‘rejected by no hard heart’; Chrysostom and Cassian say grace helps a will that can still resist (medium–high)

From the study it came from: Agree that grace comes first; diverge on predestination, where the fathers were divided among themselves.

Two separate measures, shown side by side; neither is combined with the other (confidence-weighted, out of 4; counts show how many of this doctrine's 3 questions each rests on; ⚠ marks coverage more than 10 points below the median, a less certain rank). This doctrine is second-order (tier weight 2). How scoring works · Scripture and tradition · Glossary · Every score with its citation

Closeness to Scripture

1 Catholic3/3 cells 84% 3/3 q
2 Lutheran3/3 cells 84% 3/3 q
3 Anglican3/3 cells 84% 3/3 q
4 Reformed Baptist3/3 cells 84% 3/3 q
5 General Baptist3/3 cells 84% 3/3 q
6 Orthodox3/3 cells 75% 3/3 q
7 Oriental Orthodox3/3 cells 75% 3/3 q
8 Presbyterian3/3 cells 75% 3/3 q
9 Anabaptist⚠ 2/3 cells · low coverage 75% 2/3 q

Closeness to the fathers

1 Anabaptist⚠ 2/3 cells · low coverage 93% 2/3 q
2 Orthodox3/3 cells 88% 3/3 q
3 Oriental Orthodox3/3 cells 88% 3/3 q
4 General Baptist3/3 cells 88% 3/3 q
5 Catholic3/3 cells 83% 3/3 q
6 Anglican3/3 cells 62% 3/3 q
7 Reformed Baptist3/3 cells 62% 3/3 q
8 Presbyterian3/3 cells 57% 3/3 q
9 Lutheran3/3 cells 49% 3/3 q
Charts: closeness to the fathers by question, and timeline
Closeness to the fathers, by question (0–4). Hatched = not assessed in the category file. Click a question for its verdict.
01234Catholic · S11.1: 4/4 — Listed under 'closest to the fathers on': S11.14Orthodox · S11.1: 4/4 — Listed under 'closest to the fathers on': S11.14Oriental Orthodox · S11.1: 4/4 — Shenouda III, lecture 'The Problem of Election or Rejection' (official-site summary): salvation offered to all, and 'it is the human being who freely chooses the path of life or destruction' (verified as summarized)4Lutheran · S11.1: 1/4 — Listed under 'departs or sharpens on': S11.1 (bondage of will) sharper than the fathers1Anglican · S11.1: 2/4 — Art. X: man 'cannot turn and prepare himself, by his own natural strength'2Presbyterian · S11.1: 2/4 — WCF IX.1 natural liberty; IX.3 total inability to spiritual good2Reformed Baptist · S11.1: 2/4 — 1689 9.3: 'wholly lost all ability of will to any spiritual good'2General Baptist · S11.1: 4/4 — SC 1660 art. 4: all men 'put into such a capacity, as that (through the grace of God) they may be eternally saved'4Anabaptist · S11.1: 4/4 — Dordrecht III/V: salvation offered to all; only the 'unbelieving and disobedient' excluded4S11.1conf. highCatholic · S11.2: 2/4 — Departs column says 'S3 mostly Augustinian': on a split question it follows one named patristic strand (Augustine) rather than departing from all of them2Orthodox · S11.2: 3/4 — Listed under 'closest to the fathers on': S11.2 (foreknowledge) (verdict is split; this follows one patristic strand)3Oriental Orthodox · S11.2: 3/4 — Shenouda III, 'The Problem of Election or Rejection' (official-site summary): 'Election is not a predestined decision by God but the result of a person's free response to His grace'; rejects predestination to salvation or damnation (verified as summarized)3Lutheran · S11.2: 3/4 — Listed under 'closest to the fathers on': S11.2 single (verdict is split; this follows one patristic strand)3Anglican · S11.2: 3/4 — Art. XVII: single predestination to life, 'by his counsel secret to us'3Presbyterian · S11.2: 2/4 — Listed under both 'closest' (S11.2 (A)) and 'departs or sharpens' (S11.2 double decree)2Reformed Baptist · S11.2: 3/4 — 1689 3.3: 'others being left to act in their sin to their just condemnation' (preterition; no parallel decree)3General Baptist · S11.2: 3/4 — SC 1660 art. 8: elect are 'such as believe', yet election 'not ... from fore-seen faith'; art. 9 ungodly ordained to condemnation 'considered as such'3Anabaptist · S11.2: 3/4 — Dordrecht V: no one excluded 'except the unbelieving and disobedient'; no doctrine of decree3S11.2conf. mediumCatholic · S11.3: 3/4 — Trent VI, canon 4: anathema to anyone who says that free will moved by God 'cannot refuse its consent, if it would'. Follows Chrysostom and Cassian; capped at 3 for a split verdict3Orthodox · S11.3: 3/4 — Dositheus, Decree 3: preventing grace is 'of use only to the willing, not to the unwilling'. Follows Chrysostom and Cassian3Oriental Orthodox · S11.3: 3/4 — Shenouda III, lecture 'The Problem of Election or Rejection' (official-site summary, popeshenouda.org.eg): election is 'the result of a person's free response to His grace'. Follows Chrysostom and Cassian3Lutheran · S11.3: 3/4 — Formula of Concord, Solid Declaration II.60: 'God does not force man to become godly (for those who always resist the Holy Ghost … are not converted), yet God the Lord draws the man whom He wishes to convert'. Grace can be resisted, yet conversion is God's work alone: elements of both strands3Anglican · S11.3: 3/4 — Art. XVII: the elect 'be called according to God's purpose by his Spirit working in due season: they through Grace obey the calling'; Art. X: grace 'preventing us, that we may have a good will'. Leans to Augustine without using his strongest terms3Presbyterian · S11.3: 3/4 — WCF X.1: God renews their wills and, 'by his almighty power, determining them to that which is good, and effectually drawing them to Jesus Christ: yet so, as they come most freely'. Follows Augustine3Reformed Baptist · S11.3: 3/4 — 1689 10.1: the same words as WCF X.1. Follows Augustine3General Baptist · S11.3: 3/4 — Orthodox Creed XXI: 'those that with Cordial Hearts do improve this common Grace, he in time worketh unfained Faith'. Close to Cassian's 'beginnings of a good will'3Anabaptist · S11.3: not assessedS11.3conf. medium–high
CatholicOrthodoxOriental OrthodoxLutheranAnglicanPresbyterianReformed BaptistGeneral BaptistAnabaptistnot assessed
When the cited witnesses spoke (approximate dates) and where later traditions fixed their positions. Filled dot = consensus question; hollow orange = a question on which the fathers varied. Each item links to its source note or post-750 note.
1002003004005006007001000125015001700post-750 (compressed)Justin Martyr (c. 155) · S11.1Justin Martyrc. 155 · S11.1Irenaeus (c. 180) · S11.1Irenaeusc. 180 · S11.1Chrysostom (c. 395) · S11.3Chrysostomc. 395 · S11.3Augustine (c. 415) · S11.2Augustinec. 415 · S11.2Augustine (c. 415) · S11.2Augustinec. 415 · S11.2Augustine (c. 415) · S11.3Augustinec. 415 · S11.3Augustine (c. 415) · S11.3Augustinec. 415 · S11.3John Cassian (c. 426) · S11.3John Cassianc. 426 · S11.3John Cassian (c. 426) · S11.3John Cassianc. 426 · S11.3Trent VI (1547) · CatholicTrent VI1547 · CatholicFormula of Concord (1577) · LutheranFormula of Concord1577 · LutheranWestminster Confession (1646) · PresbyterianWestminster Confession1646 · PresbyterianConfession of Dositheus (1672) · OrthodoxConfession of Dositheus1672 · Orthodox
  1. c. 155 Justin Martyr S11.1
  2. c. 180 Irenaeus S11.1
  3. c. 395 Chrysostom S11.3 · fathers varied
  4. c. 415 Augustine S11.2 · fathers varied
  5. c. 415 Augustine S11.2 · fathers varied
  6. c. 415 Augustine S11.3 · fathers varied
  7. c. 415 Augustine S11.3 · fathers varied
  8. c. 426 John Cassian S11.3 · fathers varied
  9. c. 426 John Cassian S11.3 · fathers varied
  10. 1547 Trent VI Catholic
  11. 1577 Formula of Concord Lutheran
  12. 1646 Westminster Confession Presbyterian
  13. 1672 Confession of Dositheus Orthodox

S11 · Predestination and election

Unconditional or conditional; free choice.

Tier: Second-order (scoring weight 2). How the tiers were set: theological triage. Site structure: structure.

Questions

  • S11.1 Free choice (was salvation/S2)
  • S11.2 Election (was salvation/S3)
  • S11.3 Can the grace that brings a person to faith be resisted?

Verdicts and trace

S11.1 · Free choice

QuestionVerdictConfidenceReasoningKey sourcesScripture (benchmark)
S11.1Free choice universally affirmed; defended against fate and naturesHighS11.1.1 · S11.1.3 weighingjustin-martyr-sal-s1 · irenaeus-sal-s1S11.1.4: medium

S11.2 · Election

QuestionVerdictConfidenceReasoningKey sourcesScripture (benchmark)
S11.2Split in the fathers: Augustine’s unconditional election vs. the foreknowledge line (no T1 text verified); Scripture favours election by God’s purpose (Rom 9:11–16; Eph 1:5, 11); no double decree in eitherMediumS11.2.1 · S11.2.3 weighingaugustine-sal-s2 · augustine-sal-s3S11.2.4: medium

S11.3 · Can the grace that brings a person to faith be resisted?

QuestionVerdictConfidenceReasoningKey sourcesScripture (benchmark)
S11.3Split: Augustine says converting grace is ‘rejected by no hard heart’; Chrysostom and Cassian say grace helps a will that can still resistMedium-highS11.3.1 · S11.3.3 weighingaugustine-s11x-s1 · augustine-s11x-s2 · chrysostom-s11x-s1 · john-cassian-s11x-s1 · john-cassian-s11x-s2S11.3.4: low-medium

Post-750 development

Which of this doctrine’s questions each tradition stays closest to, or departs from. Each row links to the tradition’s notes.

TraditionClosest to the fathers onDeparts or sharpens on
CatholicS11.1S11.2 mostly Augustinian
OrthodoxS11.1; S11.2 (foreknowledge)—
Oriental OrthodoxS11.1; partly S11.2—
LutheranS11.2 singleS11.1 (bondage of will) sharper than the fathers
AnglicanS11.1; partly S11.2partly S11.1
PresbyterianS11.2 (A)S11.2 double decree
Reformed BaptistS11.1; partly S11.2partly S11.1
General BaptistS11.1; partly S11.2—
AnabaptistS11.1; partly S11.2—

Origin

Plan, overall verdict and verification status of the former salvation category (shared with the other doctrines that came from it)

Salvation: grace, free will, predestination, perseverance

Method and conventions: docs/conventions.md. Reasoning: salvation reasoning.

1. Plan

Questions: S1 grace and the beginning of faith; S2 free will; S3 predestination; S4 perseverance and assurance. The ground and form of justification are covered in justification and not repeated here. Sources: Justin, 1 Apol. 43; Irenaeus AH IV.37; Origen, De Principiis III.1; Cassian, Conf. 13; Augustine, Predestination of the Saints, Gift of Perseverance, Rebuke and Grace; Orange 529. Planned but not yet read: Prosper, Call of All Nations; Chrysostom on Rom 9; John of Damascus II.25–30; Gottschalk (post-750). Scripture: Rom 8–9; Eph 1–2; John 6, 10; Phil 1:6, 29; Heb 6:4–6; 1 Tim 2:4.

2. Verdicts and trace

Weighed under the source-proximity principle: Scripture first, then the father tiers T1–T4. Verdict changes are listed in docs/proximity-changes.md.

3. Post-750 development

4. Overall verdict

Catholic closest overall (Orange plus Trent canons 4 and 15–17 follow Augustine closely on S4). Lutheran is close on S1, S3 and S4. Orthodox is closest on S2 and the earlier S3 line. Presbyterian departs on S4 and on double predestination. Confidence: medium. S3 is split, and the Greek fathers are thinly verified.

5. Verification status

  • Verified: Justin, Irenaeus, Cassian, Augustine (3 works), Orange c. 5, Trent VI cc. 4 and 15–17, Dositheus 3, FC SD XI.8, WCF III.3 and XVII.1.
  • To verify: Origen III.1 detail and Comm. Rom. 8:29; the conclusion of Orange; Prosper; Chrysostom on Rom 9; John of Damascus II; Luther, Bondage of the Will; FC on the regenerate falling away; LSB English.
  • S11.3 (2026-10-17): verified in English: Augustine, Rebuke and Grace 38 and Predestination of the Saints 13; Chrysostom, Hom. John 46; Cassian, Conference XIII; Trent VI can. 4; Dositheus 3; FC SD II.60; Arts. X and XVII; WCF X.1; 1689 10.1; Orthodox Creed XXI; Shenouda III election lecture (official-site summary).